Good Spot for a Blog

It’s been about ten weeks since I’ve written – but I have valid excuses! 

The first month of absence was due to being laptopless. The most boring kind of topless. Life with a Chromebook was already challenging, but when the screen went on the blink, it had to go back. John Lewis put up a fight, but ultimately refunded me. That was April gone.

I rushed out to buy a proper Windows laptop, and that led to my second month of inactivity – I bought Balatro. Every time I opened my new machine to start a blog, I was waylaid by a “quick game” of this clever little poker startover (see previous comments). Goodbye May.

It’s as good as everyone said, and has probably sucked 50 hours of my life away up to this point, but it’s not super-dooper original. It’s one-player-power-up-draw-poker with collectibles. We had all those puzzle pieces twenty years ago. 

Fair play though, it took an enthusiastic amateur to throw it together, and now that guy is rich. I’m happy that there was a financial reward for poker innovation, and that it went to a complete unknown with no connections to gambling.

I digress. The third, and possibly best, reason for my silence, is that I’m on another European roadtrip. It’s very hard to find motivation to write when you’re stag-doing in Munich, sunning yourself in Majorca and pedaling about the Alps. Hello June!

Nonetheless, after three weeks of utter bliss, I find myself with a bit of spare time, an extraordinary view (see pic) and a laundry list of filthy gambling undergarments to air out.

Plus it’ll be nice to stop LinkedIn’s weekly reminder that nobody has seen my posts. How are you supposed to engage my unique talents if you’ve forgotten that I exist?

So to business. Let’s start with the ridiculous. 

On April 7, a lottery ticket in Oregon won a jackpot of $1.33B. That’s a bonkers amount of money for a single winner. What makes it more nut-boggling still, is that it’s only the eighth biggest win in the USA (FYI the record is $2.04bn). 

What a massive waste of potential enjoyment. That winner would have been almost exactly as happy with a $330M win, and then a whole other THOUSAND PLAYERS could have enjoyed a million each.

I’m sure the main winner was top-tier-chuffed with that amount, but the $1M runner-ups won’t have been so far behind emotionally. Let’s say they were next-tier-peed-a-bit-delirious. That means it could have created between 500 and 999 times more direct happiness.   

I know the big jackpot amounts are a successful marketing ploy, and I’m guilty of being lured in myself, but let’s find a better way to spread the glee. 

On the subject of joy-sprinkling, since I last wrote, Blackpool South’s crooked MP Scott Benton was forced out, and the Tories lost the subsequent by-election. They’ll have to fight it again soon and it’s highly likely to be a repeat defeat. 

Gambling isn’t really an issue for anyone in the upcoming General Election, so there isn’t much political commentary that I can offer. It’s not even a very interesting betting market with Labour looking like dead certs. You won’t get close to a 10% return betting on them to win.

However, in a small victory, the majority of politicians that have taken hospitality bribes from the gambling industry are Conservatives, so there is a good chance for more delicious blue bloodshed. 

Nowadays, I don’t usually have a strong opinion against left or right, but I’m strongly pro-competence, and that makes it an easy choice this time around. Starmer seems capable, and the incumbents are demonstrably not. I’ll be voting tactically to get rid of them.

While I’m following up on stuff, just a quick told-you-so on my Premier League tip. It didn’t take a genius to say Man City were going to win it, but it took some gambling savvy to highlight they were extremely good value at the ~1.8 pre-season odds.

If you took my advice and lumped your average first house deposit (£34K+) or wedding fund (£20K+) on that outcome, you’re now at least ten grand richer. Do remember to send me a postcard from your upgraded honeymoon destination.

To be clear, as you won’t have clicked the link to see what I actually said, I did not recommend playing for those kinds of stakes. Punting massive life sums goes against my responsible gambling thing somewhat. For the record, my average bet size is less than a fiver.

In sadder, and criminally overlooked news, the psychologist Daniel Kahneman passed away at the end of March. My use of the definite article there was no mistake, to me Kahneman really was THE psychologist. His body of work is essential reading for anyone in gambling.

That said, if I had been aware of his output while I was still in gambling (CRM/promotions in particular), then I’d just have done more damage. That’s saying something considering my hands are bloodier than a Lady Macbeth cameo in a Saw movie.

In short, Kahneman invented the field of behavioural economics (alongside the much-longer deceased Amos Tversky) and received the Nobel prize for economics for his contribution. How people behave when money is involved is critical to understanding gambling. 

I won’t suggest you go and read their academic articles, because despite their brilliance, they’re still in the abysmal dry format of scientific journals. But at the very least read Thinking, Fast and Slow, which distils the best bits into a readable book.

If that recommendation isn’t juicy enough for you, bear in mind that he ended up marrying Tversky’s widow. So he was kind of a freak. 

Finally, it wouldn’t be a spring blog smorgasbord recap if I didn’t have a rant about the Grand National. Not the race itself, that was excellent and mercifully free of horse-slaughter. No, once again, it’s the DAMN BOOKIES that deserve my ire (that’s the block caps hat trick, I’ll stop shouting now).

My girlfriend is a once a year gambler, and wanted to place a bet, so I thought we’d have a look at the sign-up offers for the big race. I was surprised to see there was pretty much no special effort being made to attract new customers.

Just about all the big names are offering contrived “bet £10, get £40 in free bets” offers that “reward” you with promotional wagers on their highest margin and most addictive products (bet builders and slots respectively). Manipulative cross-selling right out of the gate.

That sucks, but it isn’t the worst bit. I wasn’t getting any decent promotions either! Almost no gambling companies were making an effort for the Grand National. In a hyper-competitive market place, that is almost inexplicable. 

It’s like florists going dark in the week of Valentines day, or supermarkets neglecting to stock chocolate eggs for three months prior to Easter. Something is suspiciously afoot. 

Did all the big sportsbooks decide to have a profit-boosting truce? We know they’re in constant communication for both good reasons (coordinated blocking of disordered gamblers) and bad (the machinations of lobbying body the BGC).

Perhaps they decided not to waste £10M each in promotional costs by scrapping over a saturated market, and just pocket the cash instead. How depressingly plausible.

It’s a very smart play if true (which my gut says it is), but horribly uncompetitive. As gambling consumers, the only leverage we have in this rigged game, is to take our business elsewhere. If everyone has stopped trying, then we’re all losers.

Innovation Celebration

Brace yourself, it’s more poker stuff today. I recently had reason to ruminate on the game, so I’ve got a few more things I want to discuss.

Apologies if you find your way here to explore the full sumptuous labyrinth of my gambling knowledge, but poker is where I’m at my expertiest, so it is in that ornate antechamber that we shall linger a little longer.

We’re leaving behind the muck of game integrity for now though (I have plenty to say about bots in the not-too-distant future), and onto something lighter: Innovation.

Maybe I’m just conditioned for optimism by the unconvincing arrival of spring, but I’m seeing green shoots of creativity. I’ve argued before that poker as a wider product category still has plenty of life, but I’ve rarely seen signs that anyone is pursuing the opportunities. 

I see luscious, fertile, virgin fields all around, but the incumbent poker giants have been content to toil in the gravelly back yard of jackpots and speed games. That’s not so much novelty as it is just tweaking a couple of dials. 

In general, knob-twiddling isn’t without value. In those particular cases though, it does nothing to expand the game. Worse still, it’s lazy and a bit dangerous.

Bigger jackpots mean more losers, because those prizes aren’t self-funding. More losers means more loss-chasing, and the big prize money means there’s always a glimmer of hope to get out of a hole. 

It’s like they’re trying to engineer a perfect downward spiral for the vulnerable.

Faster games are bad because it’s not healthy for dopamine hits to come too thick and fast. It conditions the brain to crave more, and that’s a contributing factor in how addictions start. 

But thankfully, not everyone is thinking like that. Today I just want to direct a couple of solemn nods of approval towards folks who are exploring the unploughed meadows of poker innovation.

First off, the solo developer that created Balatro. He goes by a screen name, so I can’t offer personal plaudits, but then he’s already been smothered in cash and praise, so I don’t suppose he needs it from me anyway.

I haven’t played Balatro yet, because I was stupid enough to buy a Chromebook (worst purchase of 2023) and I haven’t owned a console since the N64. I’m not about to break my 25 year run just to play a card game, and it’ll be on mobile soon enough.

I won’t try to explain the game here, but it’s basically a very pokery solo roguelike with lots of interesting jokers and rubbish graphics (see above). There are a bunch of rounds with an element of deck-building in between.

Side note, I hate the word roguelike. It’s gaming-speak for “a game where you have to start again from scratch when you die”, but it doesn’t look like it means that. It doesn’t even have the decency to sound like a noun, so it’s very annoying. Maybe I’m just a basic literal b#tch, but I’d call it a Startover.

It’s sold over a million copies in the month since release, and it’ll win a bunch of awards. Players on Steam have put in nearly 2000 years of combined play to date. That’s close to my time investment in Championship Manager 02/03 at university.

What I really love about Balatro is that it isn’t a gambling game. People are buying it just because they want to play it and have fun. 

Imagine that?! Playing a poker variant because it’s genuine entertainment. It should be to the utter embarrassment of the poker world that it is a revolutionary approach.

I suspect the deeper-pocketed industry players are circling to buy the game and slap their branding on it as a marketing exercise. Please don’t. Take all that money and spend it on creating something else original and interesting. Maybe even something that’s fun.

Next up, I want to sing the praises of Kim Lund. Kim stumbled across this blog last year, and by chance we were able to meet up soon after at a pub quiz in Malmo. 

Kim has fingers in lots of pies, but the most advanced of which is Hands of Victory. It’s a bit more like traditional poker, but with some creative wrinkles and an engaging narrative (featuring its own IP). Like Balatro, it leans more towards gaming, but it does keep a toe in the gambling camp.

It was so interesting to talk to someone who thinks about games the same way I do. Or at least with the same passion and disregard for dogma. 

Most people don’t want to get lost in the weeds of what makes something fun, or what can be done to make it better, but that’s my favourite thing to think about.

Padel tennis (and I suppose pickleball if you’re feeling generous) is awesome, but it wouldn’t exist if someone hadn’t given regular tennis an overdue kick in the cheeks. That’s pretty much what Kim has tried to do with his game.

I don’t know if Cards of Victory will be his big breakthrough, but I’m confident he will have one. I love the inspiration part of game design, but only occasionally bring my ideas to life. More likely I’ll cast them like pearls to swine and pop them in a blog.

Kim is someone who is prepared to do the hard work and make them a reality. We need more of him.

The Superusual Subjects

It was a busy weekend for celebrating, but while you were all thoughtfully appreciating international women and mothers, I was busy marking a workiversary. It has now been a year since I left a job at GGPoker.

I’ve talked about that chafening experience before (here), so today is about their recent superuser scandal. I don’t have any hard facts to add, but as I glimpsed behind the curtain just 12 months ago I can add some insightful colour commentary.

My stint at the company only lasted nine months, and during that time I was within muffled earshot of noteworthy conversations and some fascinating tantrums, so I got a good feel for the culture.

Based on my experience, I’ll share with you why I think it happened, and whether I think it could happen again. First though, here’s a summary of how we got here and what I’m talking about. 

A superuser is poker’s equivalent to a supervillain. They are players that have somehow gained a powerful unfair advantage over their opponents. Essentially it’s a cheat-mode.

Imagine being able to make your opponent fold against their will with a sly wink, or having the ability to summon the nuts by muttering a magic word. It’s like that, but much less fun or sexy.

By my count there have been two and a half notable incidents in a quarter century of online pokering, so this really doesn’t happen very often. 

The first sniff of the potential for superpowers came in the late nineties, when industry front-runner PlanetPoker published their shuffle algorithm to allay concerns over its robustness. 

An ingenious cyber security firm subsequently cracked the code and could tell you what cards were going to be dealt next. The site limped on for years, but eventually succumbed to strong competition and shame. 

I tried to do deeper research into the incident, but the details are either long forgotten or poorly SEO’d. The free version of ChatGPT had no idea what I was talking about and instead I was treated to a mash-up of details from a variety of later poker scandals.

As far as I can tell, these were white hat hackers that didn’t use their god-like powers to enrich themselves, which is why I’m only counting this as a half-incident. Presumably they derived more satisfaction from the professional challenge than crushing $3/$6 Limit Hold’em (this incident pre-dates the luxury of game selection). 

While there were no known victims in the case, the door for high-tech cheating had been cracked ajar for the world’s great cryptographers and hacking masterminds. Or, in the case of our next culprit, a horrible greedy moron. 

Fast forward ten years, for the first proper superuser scandal at UltimateBet and AbsolutePoker. I’ll treat them as a single incident, because despite the different brand names, it was the same company and perpetrator. 

In this case, the site developers made the error of allowing high-level company insiders to see what cards players were holding in real-time. This was probably intended as a non-malicious, titillating feature, but turned into a catastrophic vulnerability.

Unfortunately, one of those with the magic access was Russ Hamilton, 1994 WSOP Main Event champion and pre-existing millionaire. He used the special access for years to cheat players out of millions of dollars across both sites. 

It’s hard to express how big and shocking this news story was at the time. I suppose it’s like finding out Andre Agassi was winning tennis grandslam tournaments because of an enchanted wig. That is to say, there are several layers of WTF. 

Anyway, he (Russ, not Andre) became increasingly brazen about using his secret advantage and was ultimately brought down by the increasingly watchful and suspicious poker community. 

It was a fascinating and messy debacle, which contributed to the demise of the sites. Although it is important to note that they were also a Ponzi scheme.

That brings us to the most recent superuser skullduggery at GGPoker, which for me combines the juiciest bits of what came before. There’s the technical wizardry of the 90s, the gluttonous stupidity of the 00s, and the heroics of a poker player that brought justice.

This time, a clever crook figured out a way to hijack a feature that shows the percentage likelihood of winning when players are all-in. This is only supposed to be visible when no more betting is possible, but the player managed to switch it on early.

As far as advantages go, it isn’t as prescient as knowing what cards are going to come next, it isn’t as potent as knowing precisely what your opponent holds and it’s nowhere near as  saucy as that wink-fold thing I invented earlier. 

But the simplicity almost makes up for the lack of omniscience. Knowing how likely you are to win during a hand is still a colossal head start. We’re into enchanted wig territory.

GGPoker became aware of the flaw and quickly released a security patch, but the All-in Bandit was a step ahead. He had ring-fenced his client, blocking the software updates and thus keeping the nefarious edge.

Luckily, that’s where the indubitable intelligence of the perpetrator ran out. Like his predecessor Rigged Russ, the scoundrel was playing ugly smash-and-grab poker, and it became obvious something was amiss. A single suspicious player raised the alarm and had the cheat stopped before he had amassed $30K in winnings.

So were GGPoker horribly at fault here, or were they simply the victims of a clever criminal cretin? Oxymoron intentional.

To me, it’s a bit of both. I don’t think they displayed outright incompetence, but they were sloppy and complacent. There really wasn’t any glaring internal error or deliberate malice on their part. They were simply bested by a(n) (initially) very smart hacker. 

That’s not to say they are blameless though. Earlier on I mentioned company culture, and that is where I point the trembling finger of fault. This was a failure of corporate behaviour and attitude. 

GGPoker develops fast. When a passable idea makes it onto their Slack workspace and they decide to pursue it, then they slam their foot on the development accelerator. It doesn’t really matter what direction the company vehicle was facing at the time – it’s full swervy, screechy steam ahead. 

This is mostly because of the irascible billionaire owner. I chose that word not just to sound clever, but because it’s a good fit for the man behind GGPoker. He can move quickly from civilised to spiky, and over small and unpredictable things (don’t mention Sit & Go’s). 

So, when he decides he wants something done with his software, the developers leap into action. They’re clearly a talented and hard-working team, because I was amazed at how quickly they could deliver complex tasks.  After ten years working at PokerStars, I was accustomed to slow, careful software progress – at GG I was getting product whiplash.

That isn’t wholly a bad thing. Slightly scary impatient billionaire tyrant businessmen like Jobs, Musk and Bezos have delivered incredible products and progress. But here it’s part of the problem. 

Rapid pace means ideas are not always fully fledged, and you’re often sacrificing on quality. For example, while I was there they introduced a special game type for the World Cup in Qatar with just a few weeks’ notice. It was a weird poker/sports-betting hybrid tournament that even the staff barely understood.

It began as a throwaway idea to cash in on the football, and somehow morphed into a playable product while it was being built. There were glitches and problems, and players only really got involved because they were force-fed free $10 tickets. 

That was fairly typical for a development cycle. Things would always be getting broken and patched, smashed and fixed, dislodged and gaffer-taped, usually in the name of adding bells and whistles.

Perhaps part of the reason they move so quickly is that they have become efficient at fixing things. It’s a great capability to have, but I think it has bred complacency over the development choices they make.

I’ll give credit where it’s due – they are innovating and investing to make the game more enjoyable for recreational players (thus forcing others to do the same). However, these advances should not come at the expense of core game functionality. 

The feature that displays all-in percentages (that the superuser bent to their advantage) doesn’t need to be there. It’s a nice educational thing to have, but it’s dressing. 

If you are tasked with building a high security prison for a supervillain, then you shouldn’t waste time fussing over the curtains because you’d be an idiot to put in windows. You need to take the time to make good decisions and then execute them well.  

The problems don’t stop at maniacal hastiness. Transparency and accountability were also suspect whilst I was part of their UK operation.

I had regular trouble with data that I needed to do my role well. I was repeatedly assured by technical teams that there were no issues, or that monitoring mechanisms were in place to prevent problems, but it simply wasn’t the case. They were poor at acknowledging fault and opaque with explanations. 

It’s for those reasons that I can’t say I’m surprised that they were hit by a superuser. Unless they tighten up their approach to product improvement, then it’s likely to happen again. There is no place for complacency or world’s-biggest-poker-room arrogance.

This scandal won’t be the death of GGPoker, and nor should it be, but people ought to know a bit more about what it’s like at the industry’s leading site. One failure is forgivable, but anyone playing there should be vigilant.

As for every other operator, I hope they see this as a warning shot, and not simply a chance for schadenfreude and a market share grab.

The poker environment literally conditions its denizens to identify and exploit weakness, so know that clever, unscrupulous people will always be probing at the cracks. In a world of increasingly democratised and rapidly improving AI, that is only going to get worse.

For operators, it is impossible to know that your software is always secure, so every site should be monitoring their players’ win rates (and associated play) in real time. That is a big data and policing challenge, but in a world of increasingly democratised and rapidly improving AI, not an insurmountable one. 

That is how both known super users have been caught so far, and it’s almost certainly how the next one will be discovered. That burden belongs to the sites, not the players.

Legacy and Lessons

I spent eight mostly excellent years on the Isle of Man, and I like to think I made a mark there.

It was a work hard, play hard, eat bad, era of my life. At one point you could order a Bob Special from two different places.

By day, the canteen at PokerStars HQ would serve you a double sausage, double egg , double bacon breakfast (seen above) for just £3. That stayed in place several years after I left, until they finally got around to re-printing the menus.

By night, you could get a salad-less mixed doner wrap laced with burger slices (think toast cut into soldiers, except it’s beef), from the Istanbul kebab shop.

It took a serious commitment to cholesterol to achieve that culinary double. It’s no surprise that I immediately sank in the 2010 World Tin Bath Championships.

On a recent return visit I was gleeful to learn that my beverage legacy remains intact. There are several people still drinking vodka with diet Vimto mixer. Like the low-carb athlete breakfast, this was invented to improve my prospects in a weight loss bet.

Initially the drink was called a Gay Bob, because fifteen years ago we liked to use casual homophobia on people who enjoyed fruit-flavoured alcohol. Nonetheless, the drink caught on.

Thankfully, an innovative (lazy) bartender started pouring doubles in pint classes that could fit a whole can of mixer. This halved the number of bar trips, but it required a new name. The Summer Bob was crowned, and still reigns on a small section of Douglas promenade.

Not long after, LGBTQ+ marriage was finally legalised on the Isle of Man. The two events are probably unconnected, but nobody knows for sure.

Work-wise, I couldn’t say how much of my DNA remains at PokerStars. I helped to design and create some really useful back-end CRM and promotional tools, but I would hope they’ve been replaced by slicker off-the-shelf solutions by now.

However, when I did a stint at GGPoker last year and studied the tournament schedule closely, it bore an uncanny resemblance to the work I’d done ten years earlier alongside the Poker Room Management team. Somehow a fingerprint left in the Isle of Man had made it all the way to South Korea.

They had ripped-off our ‘appointment tournaments’. These were sets of uniquely named, affordable events, in the most popular formats, with aggressive guaranteed prize pools. Their most important aspect though, was the timing.

Each particular tournament took place at the same time daily, and the offerings took place every hour. It meant the players knew they would never have to wait long for a game they wanted to play, and once they had found that game, they knew it would be available to them again tomorrow.

In retrospect, that seems pretty damn obvious, but it was a leap forward. As humans, we thrive on consistency and predictability. To illustrate that point, I’ll share a business story I love from outside of gambling.

In the growth phase of Kinko’s (the defunct US photocopying chain), the founder met a 24-hour convenience store owner. The man knew he made most of his revenue during the waking day, so sensibly tried closing overnight to reduce costs.

His sales quickly halved. His customers no longer saw his shop as a reliable open-all-hours go-to option, so they drifted elsewhere.

The Kinko’s guy wondered if the opposite was true. At the time, his locations were running fairly typical business hours. It took him a while to persuade his franchisees that 24/7 opening was a worthwhile experiment, but eventually one agreed to take on the extra cost and hassle.

His revenues doubled, because people (particularly students who worked long into the night) now had a place they could go to print their work at any time. Other branches followed suit, and all experienced the same growth.

I have a more current example. One of my favourite entertainment venues has had a rough ride since Covid, and to reduce costs the owner opens only when he thinks trade will be decent. I never know if it will be open or closed, so now I hardly ever bother going. It’s the variable ratio reward schedule working in reverse.

Similarly, there are lots of open mic nights and pub quizzes that take place on “the third Thursday of the month”. While it’s sort of consistent, it isn’t simple or memorable. I have better things to do than count Thursdays, so I probably won’t be going.

Is this at all relevant to gambling nowadays? Yes, I think so. While I was still at GGPoker last year, their Global MILLION$ tournament was one of their best poker products. But because of the $1M liability, it was the first thing canned if something shinier came along.

That made it unusable as a promotional tool for us CRM folks, because we couldn’t rely on it taking place every week. It would just disappear without warning.

In business, as in life, consistency is king, and yet everywhere you look, it isn’t there.

This sporadic approach might save money in the short run, but it hurts in the long term. Here I can speak with the certainty born of hard experience. If you’re going to be flaky, then you’ll never get a kebab named after you.

I wanted to end the blog on that devastating line, but I haven’t discussed my greatest, lasting legacy yet. It came in the field of Advanced Degeneracy, and it will have to wait for next time…