My Amazing Terrible Football Tip

The new Premier League season starts this weekend, so I thought I’d do a sports betting preview.

Those that know me personally would probably scoff at the idea of taking my expert football advice, so I won’t pretend that you’ll find any here. But what you will get is expert gambling information. Do with it what you will.

A brief look at the betting market tells you that Man City are red hot favourites for the title. That should come as no surprise, but it’s just the start of the story.

I have read they have as high as a 90% chance of winning the Premier League this season. Supposedly, that figure was obtained from modelling Opta data across thousands of simulated seasons. On the surface, that’s a pretty sound methodology.

I inject a bit of cynicism though because any time data has been pummelled into information it should be greeted with the raised eyebrow of scepticism. Especially if the source is a random social media post. 

However I’ve spent the last two days thinking about it, and I think that probability is pretty accurate. Maybe not the full 90% figure, but at the very least 80%.

City have won the last three titles (mostly comfortably), and just got the distracting Champions League monkey off their backs. They’ve kept all the crucial parts of last season’s large and excellent squad (with the exception of Gundogan), added a great defender, and the same dickhead genius is in charge. It is a very powerful status quo.

If you asked a thousand pundits who they think will win the title, I reckon at least 90% would say City. If you followed up and asked them to give their confidence level in that prediction, I’m certain it would be no lower than 80% on average. I admit these are far from reliable statistical methods, but it’s corroboration nonetheless and I’m trying to build a case here. 

So why does any of that matter? Well the current decimal odds on a Man City triumph are between 1.73 and 1.89 (the fractional odds are a bit messy to work with here). That means you’ll get a return of 73-89% on your money depending on where you place your bet.

But if City are 90% likely to win the title, then the true odds you should receive are only 1.11, or an 11% return. That means there is massive positive upside on City to win the title at their current price.

If you reduce their chances to 80% then the odds should be no more generous than 1.25. At 70% likelihood then the odds should be 1.43. So even if you’re much less positive about their prospects than me or my thousand imaginary pundits, it would still be a profitable bet. 

A punt on the Sky Blues to win the title only stops being a long term winning play if you think their chances of winning the league are below 58%. If you’re in that category, you’re either an Arsenal fan or completely bonkers. Probably both.   

What’s so terrible about that tip? Well there are several things.

Firstly, it means you’ll find yourself cheering for Man City for the foreseeable future. That’s pretty awful on its own. But you could re-frame it as an emotional hedge; if you have money riding on their success, then it softens the blow of their inevitable march to glory.

Secondly, it means you’ll be locked into a bet for nine months. I think the timespan of a bet is an important part of its enjoyability, and that period is far too long. It’s really hard to stay interested in a wager for that length of time so the fun (if there is any to be had) would soon wear off.

Thirdly, while the bet offers a positive return on investment, the odds are still crappy. You’re playing for a prize that is less than your original stake. Psychological studies have shown that prospective wins need to be around double the size of potential losses to be of the same emotional value. 

Basically £10 lost is twice as meaningful as £10 won. Except in this case, if you’ve bet £10, you’re only in line to win about £8. So while it might be a sound financial gamble, it is a poor emotional one.

So with all that said, I’d put this in the category of a “professional bet”. If you’re in this with the sole purpose of trying to win money (NOTE: you probably shouldn’t be), then it’s an excellent opportunity. If you’re a casual punter, then steer well clear.

There is one last important lesson to take from this analysis… 

If Man City are badly mispriced in your favour, then the opposite is probably true for every other team. The bookies need to balance their books, and so the prices they’re offering on the other contenders are necessarily abysmal.

So if there is one simple tip to take from this blog: If you’re considering a bet on a team to win the Premier League this season, bet on Man City, or don’t bother betting at all.

Oh and it should go without saying. If you absolutely must bet, be sure to open a new account with a new bookie and rinse all their first deposit offers. They exist to take your money, so don’t be shy about turning the tables!