Fresh from correctly calling the Premier League winner, I’m feeling confident. There’s nothing like a small easy win to convince yourself you’re great at something. Of course you didn’t need to be a rocket doctor to predict Man City’s triumph, but I went a step further by justifying it as an excellent value pick.
If you’d put your quid on pre-season (when the great Nostra Dixmus read the tea leaves) you’d now be wondering how to spend your 80 pence of profit. Well I have some good news for you, because Euro ’24 starts today and I’ve dusted off my Crystal Ball of Positive Expected Value.
First and foremost, do not bet on England. If the bookies are to be believed, they have at least a 20% chance of winning the tournament. I’m sorry Gareth, but that’s madness.
The odds are short because we’re a nation of gamblers and footballing optimists/delusionals, so a lot of money has poured into football coming home. Bookies also know that people will take those odds even though they’re rubbish. They’re just offering the lowest price they know they can get away with.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that we actually have some brilliant players, so there is genuine cause for a soupçon of optimism. But it’s worth pointing out how little individual player quality seems to matter at the Euros.
For example, Belgium have barely made a dent in the event despite a generation of footballing Rolls Royces in their squad-garage. The same could be said for England’s last golden age of Gerrards and Lampards. Meanwhile Denmark, Greece and Portugal have all won this championship with a forecourt full of hoofing Fiat Multiplas.
In reality, the difference between teams in Europe isn’t really that big, and the tournament is short, so luck plays a big part. One bad day for you (or a brilliant day for your opponent) and you can be on the plane home.
Crucially, for all their talent on the pitch, England are burdened with lovely-but-ordinary manager. I think Southgate has grown into the role, and has made some good tough choices in selection this time around, but he’s still tactically weak and very poor at managing his resources.
It’s telling that the FA recently confirmed that they have had no approaches for Southgate’s services. The market for good managers is red hot, and yet nobody wants the England boss.
In summary, 4 to 1 on England represents abysmal value and should be avoided at all costs. But there is a positive corollary from an overhyped England; it means just about everyone else is slightly better value than they should be.
NOTE: That is if you’re betting with an exchange such as Betfair (yuck, part of Flutter) or Betdaq (glitchy but serviceable). They offer an open market, so you can be confident you’re getting close to a fair price. If you’re betting with any of the big name bookies (which most of you are), then you’ll probably be scalped for at least a 20% margin.
So who are the alternatives? The recent BBC pundit predictions were unanimously in favour of France, and the bookies have them slightly less fancied than England, which is clearly back to front. Their squad is every bit as good as England’s, and they were unlucky to lose the last World Cup final. They are proven winners though, having won both major tournaments in recent history.
The problem, of course, is that you are then stuck cheering for France. If it helps, I’m currently writing this from the Le Mans 24 Hour race, and it really is a wonderful country. That is a genuine, heartfelt view, but I still want to see them lose.
That leaves the other capable in-form nations – Portugal, Spain, and just because they’re the home team, Germany. They probably represent the sweetspot between probability of winning and return on investment. They are all somewhere between 7 and 10 to 1. Again, all have won major titles in living memory.
If you prefer a juicier return then Italy or the Netherlands are less fashionable teams that seem only slightly less likely to win. Belgium and Croatia would also fit in this category, but as they bottled it as younger, stronger and better teams, it seems very unlikely they’ll be up to the task now.
That just leaves the long shot basket cases. Oh and Denmark. Make it interesting for yourself and stick a quid on one of them. Miracles have happened before in this tournament, and they will happen again. The winnings won’t be life changing, but the smugness value would be incalculable.
Just don’t bet on England and you can’t really go wrong.
Reluctant Gambler 